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Government bond yields will remain at depressed levels as investors stay in safe haven assets given the lack of clarity on the next steps in the Brexit saga.
At the margin Brexit only serves to reinforce the divergences in global growth that were already in place. Maintain duration at benchmark and look to increase duration exposure on any meaningful back-up in Treasury yields. Corporate…
The health care sector is poised to resume its bull market, but the character of the rally will change. Sell hospitals and buy biotech.
Among the myriad of troubling signs for the global economy, some developments on the inventory and deflationary fronts could point to a brighter future. While still not our base case, those factors need to be monitored. With Brexit…
Global oil demand will continue to surprise to the upside over the balance of the year - growing at a rate of 1.6 MMb/d - following an unexpected surge over the first five months of 2016.
We prefer to fade the recent fall in yields by moving to neutral on U.K. Gilts and underweight Australia, while maintaining a benchmark overall stance on portfolio duration.
The sinking global credit impulse warns that reflation has not overwhelmed deflationary forces. Financials will continue to suffer, while utilities and retail drug stores will benefit.
The Fed has reason to delay the next rate hike until at least September, even if volatility subsides after the June 23 Brexit vote.
The Brexit vote is a coin toss. We introduce a simple model to estimate the effect of a "stay" or a "leave" vote on various currencies and assets. A "leave" vote could cause GBP/USD to fall to 1.32 or less, creating a tactical buying…
Increasing uncertainty over the Brexit vote will keep the Fed from raising its overnight policy rate at this week's FOMC meeting, but it may not keep the USD from rallying in the event of a decisive win for Brexit advocates on June…