For most of last year and the first half of this year, the market consensus was that the Fed would be among the most hawkish major global central banks. As such, interest rate differentials provided a tailwind for the US dollar…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the German yield curve will invert and that German 10-year Bunds are a buy. Even though a global recession looms, central banks are unlikely to pause…
The ECB will continue to lift rates due to sticky inflation and a tight labor market. Will it be enough to push long-term German yields higher?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the UK’s near death experience sends three salutary warnings to all investors. Warning 1: Beware ‘Hidden Leverage’ Hidden leverage is not unique…
Is the BoE’s emergency intervention in its bond market a British idiosyncrasy that global investors can ignore? No, the UK’s near death experience sends three salutary warnings, with implications for all investors.
Eurozone industrial production grew by 1.5% m/m in August – double the expected rate of increase – following a 2.3% contraction in July. The production of capital goods and consumer goods led the August increase.…
The Sentix measure of Eurozone Investor Confidence sunk 6.5 points in October to -38.3, marking the lowest level since May 2020. Both the Current Climate and Expectations components of the index deteriorated with the latter…
Our preferred tactical global fixed income trades for the rest of 2022 into early 2023 are all expressions of our views on relative monetary policy shifts within the main developed market economies. These involve bets on a…
Sentiment toward stocks is depressed and European valuations have declined substantially. However, the earnings outlook remains poor. Which side will win?