South Korea
Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend downgrading Korean equities from overweight to neutral and staying long 10-year Korean bonds, currency unhedged. A deflationary shock from shrinking exports will ripple through the Korean economy, overwhelming…
A deflationary shock from shrinking exports will ripple throughout the Korean economy. We are downgrading the KOSPI from overweight to neutral and reiterating a long position in 10-year domestic bonds, currency unhedged.
June Taiwanese export orders surprised to the upside, but weakness in non-tech trade and in broader East Asian exports underscores the narrowness of the global recovery. Orders rose 24.6% y/y, accelerating from 18.5% in May, though m/m US-bound orders fell…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
The latest data on Asian exports and manufacturing suggest that the global trade outlook remains downbeat. Korean exports in USD terms grew in June by 4.3% y/y. The three-month moving average is 2.2%. Assuming Q2 export shipments were boosted by frontloading…
East Asian trade data has been disappointing. Preliminary February data for Japanese machine tool orders showed a slowdown to 3.5% y/y from 4.7% in January. Broader machinery orders were down 3.5% m/m in January. Taiwanese exports orders were up an abnormal…
East Asian trade data was mixed in December and January. Taiwanese export orders for December were stronger than expected, rebounding to 20.8% y/y from 3.3% in November. On the other hand, Korean exports for the first 20 days of January fell 5.1% y/y, after…
Please join Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist, Matt Gertken, with special guest, Rodger Baker, Executive Director of Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics for a Webcast, Tuesday, December 10 at 2:00 PM EST, (7:00 PM GST, 8:00 PM CET).
South Korea is undergoing political turmoil, with President Yoon attempting to declare martial law. The situation is fluid and can change quickly, but there are a few investment takeaways. As we pointed a few weeks back, BCA expects geopolitical tensions…
The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.