November 2023

In a guest authorship of Section I, Doug Peta presents a synthesis of the recent views expressed in our US Investment Strategy and Bank Credit Analyst reports. Doug underscores that excess savings are unlikely to support US consumer spending beyond the middle of next year, which argues for conservative investment positioning on a 6-12 month time horizon. Additionally, this month’s Section II is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist in 2021 after a long and illustrious career. Martin expresses his personal views about the long-run outlook for inflation and argues that the multi-decade disinflationary era is over – which will bring significant challenges for both policymakers and investors.