Asset Allocation
As an industrial metal, copper acts as a barometer of economic activity. Silver and gold are safe-haven assets with inflation-hedging properties, though silver is relatively more sensitive to global growth developments given that industrial applications…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the Fed’s upcoming rate cut will temporarily alleviate some of the downward pressure on the RMB, but beyond the short term the USD will likely rebound in anticipation of a global slowdown. The…
US headline CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to 2.5% in August in line with consensus predictions. However, core CPI unexpectedly accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3%. Aside from airfares -- a highly volatile series which is likely to reverse in coming months given…
Following a 12-year-long bear market, Greek equities have returned a whopping 186% in EUR terms from their 2016 lows. The Greek macroeconomic backdrop has indeed improved. Since 2021, Greece’s nominal GDP growth has exceeded the pace of growth in…
Despite global bond yields having trended lower since April, bonds have only started outperforming equities since July in US dollar terms. We expect this outperformance to persist going forward. Sentiment has largely driven the equity market rally this…
China’s CPI and PPI both surprised to the downside in August. Consumer prices grew from 0.5% y/y to 0.6%, below the 0.7% anticipated. However, a 2.8% y/y surge in food prices (the fastest pace so far this year) overstates this headline figure. Core CPI…
Global semiconductor stocks have returned 50% YTD in USD terms, and a whopping 200% since their September 2022 lows. However, they may have peaked back in July. Our Emerging Market strategists highlight a significant bifurcation between the revenues of…
Crucial leading indicators of the global and European economies continue to deteriorate. How should investors position their European portfolios to benefit from these trends?
Many currencies have registered sizable gains against the US dollar over the last two months. Most notably, the yen has been one of the best G7 performers since the greenback began depreciating. It now trades at 143 against the US dollar, marking a 11% gain…
Both leading PMI measures painted a sluggish picture of China’s economic conditions in August. The NBS composite PMI suggested that overall activity barely expanded (50.1) and that the manufacturing sector’s contraction unexpectedly accelerated (49.4 to…