Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys
EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodities. According to our Emerging Markets Strategy colleagues, such a decoupling is unusual. A potential Trump re-election could weigh heavily on…
A reaction to this morning’s employment report and a preview of the potential bond market implications of next week’s US election and FOMC meeting.
The latest Bank of Japan meeting did not alter our high-conviction views of being long the yen and underweight JGBs.
We recently pointed to the UK Budget announcement as a pivotal event for UK assets. Following an initially positive reception, the market has turned and priced in further fiscal premia in UK assets, with both gilts and the pound selling off. While the…
Advanced Q3 GDP for the US met expectations, showing 2.8% quarterly annualized growth and a small deceleration from 3.0% in Q2. Importantly, growth remains above trend. The report was strong across the board except for housing. It also highlights that US…
We update our 12-month return projections for different US fixed income sectors in soft-landing and recession scenarios.
For the past two weeks, oil has sold off amid a global spike in yields. Oil prices and Treasury yields tend to be positively correlated, as oil prices are a fast-moving component of inflation, driving the inflation expectations component of bond yields. …
Job openings missed expectations at 7.44 million in September, a mild slowdown from August. The details of the JOLTS report were also negative, except for hirings which continue their June rebound. Meanwhile, consumer confidence for October data beat…
Our US Political Strategy colleagues now see 55% odds of a Trump victory, with odds of a Republican sweep at 47%. As odds of a contested election are rising, they built on their 2020 work to provide answers for next week’s election: Won’t the economy…
The main driver of global consumer sentiment in the past few years has been high inflation. Nowhere has this been the case more than in the US, where measures of animal spirits were depressed despite a roaring economy. Today, inflation worries have eased, but…