Equities
European equities have recently lagged the S&P 500, with short-term risks building despite a constructive long-term outlook. After reaching all-time highs in February, the EURO STOXX 50 began to stall as US markets sold off on Deep Seek headlines. The…
We still believe a recession looms, but it has yet to rear its ugly head. We continue to recommend investors position defensively, but we will change tack if clear signs of a recession don’t emerge soon.
Economic growth and rapid expansions do not always translate into higher EPS and shareholder returns. One of the key reasons is dilution. We offer a typology of dilution: (1) “offensive”, (2) “defensive”, (3) corporate governance-linked, and (4) idiosyncratic cases.
Persistent deflation and constrained policy options support a defensive stance on China, favoring bonds and high-dividend equities. Consumer prices were roughly flat in June, rising just 0.1% y/y after a 0.1% decline in May. Producer prices fell 3.6%,…
BCA’s Private Markets & Alternatives strategists recommend a balanced allocation across Public and Private Infrastructure, with near-term valuation favoring Public. Structural differences in index construction, sector mix, and regional exposure drive…
Japan’s improving growth momentum and structural inflation shift support an underweight in JGBs and long JPY positioning. The June Eco Watchers Survey was broadly in line with expectations, with current conditions ticking up to 45.0 and expectations modestly…
The RBA’s surprise hold reinforces a slower easing path, warranting an underweight on Australian bonds. Markets had priced in a 25 bps cut, but the central bank opted to keep rates at 3.85%. Governor Bullock characterized the decision as a matter of timing,…
全球市场正从疫情后的刺激与错配中走出。“宿醉” 初醒，各类资产进入新一轮定价周期。在结构变化加速之际，小莉将讨论如何在全球 “宿醉期” 中稳健前行、寻找超额回报。
Labor market cracks reinforce long duration and steepener positioning as growth risks mount. Job market data has looked strong on the surface, but the details of the June employment and JOLTS reports confirm a slowing trend within the “low hiring, low firing”…
Stronger-than-expected June inflation will likely keep the Riksbank on hold in August, despite soft underlying trends. Headline inflation accelerated more than expected to 0.5% m/m (0.8% y/y), while CPI ex-housing rose to 2.9% y/y and core inflation to 3.3%…