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Geopolitics

美国大选进行时，投资者需要注意什么?
US Political Strategy Webcast
ISM Manufacturing: A Whiff Of Stagflation?
The October ISM Manufacturing missed expectations, decreasing to 46.5 from 47.2 in September. The Prices Paid component jumped, rising to 54.8 from 48.3 the month prior. New Orders showed a small upside surprise at 47.1, up 1 point on the month, pushing the…
Daily Insights
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The Critical Question For Bond Investors

A reaction to this morning’s employment report and a preview of the potential bond market implications of next week’s US election and FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Pre-Election Update: Trump And European Markets

As the odds of a Trump victory rise, European assets underperform US ones. What would be the immediate impact of a Trump victory on European stocks?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Euro Area: Growth Accelerates, But Beware Global Manufacturing
Flash Q3 GDP estimates for the Euro Area beat expectations, accelerating to 0.4% quarterly growth from 0.2% last quarter. The momentum was spread across major countries, except for Italy. Meanwhile, the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index for…
Daily Insights
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Trump Has The Edge, But Harris Underrated

Trump may be favored, but Harris is now underrated. The Senate is highly likely to go Republican – Harris would be gridlocked if she pulled off a victory. If Trump wins it will be a full sweep. Expect volatility in the short term. 

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
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Germany: Sick But Not Dead
Special Report

Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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The US Will Turn Hawkish On Trade, Foreign Policy, Or Both (GeoRisk Update)

The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
The 2024 Guide To Contested US Elections
Our US Political Strategy colleagues now see 55% odds of a Trump victory, with odds of a Republican sweep at 47%. As odds of a contested election are rising, they built on their 2020 work to provide answers for next week’s election: Won’t the economy…
Daily Insights
Economic Sentiment And The US Election
The main driver of global consumer sentiment in the past few years has been high inflation. Nowhere has this been the case more than in the US, where measures of animal spirits were depressed despite a roaring economy. Today, inflation worries have eased, but…
Daily Insights

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