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Manufacturing

A Decent US Growth Picture
The June Philadelphia Fed survey improved, pointing to still-decent US growth. The headline index rose to 10.3 from -0.4, in line with estimates. New orders and employment also moved back into expansionary territory, while shipments increased. Despite its…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
South Africa’s Stagflationary Tilt

South Africa’s ambitious reform agenda will take time to bear fruit. Meanwhile, the country faces a stagflationary squeeze as inflation rises while growth slows. South African stocks, bonds, and currency are all vulnerable.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
US Manufacturing Still Holds
The June Empire survey cooled from May’s pace, but still pointed to continued US manufacturing growth. The headline fell to 5.7 from 19.6, missing estimates. The headline fell sharply from May, but still pointed to slower growth rather than contraction. The…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
ISM PMI: Manufacturing Running Hot
May’s US ISM Manufacturing report reinforces improving activity alongside persistent price pressure, highlighting continued inflationary impulse and hawkish risks to US monetary policy. The headline index came in at 54, above the market expectation of 53,…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
Texas Momentum Cools
The Dallas Fed survey points to Texas manufacturing continuing to expand in May, but with slowing momentum. The production index fell 10 points to 9.4, signaling an average pace of output growth rather than a broad acceleration. The softer tone showed up…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
Hot Enough To Hike?

The April CPI report showed clear evidence of the direct effect of higher oil prices on inflation but, so far, limited evidence of passthrough to core.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Chinese Inflation: Not A Demand Story
Chinese inflation surprised to the upside, but the rise reflects higher energy prices rather than stronger demand. CPI rose 1.2% y/y versus 0.9% expected, while PPI was the bigger surprise at 2.8% y/y, almost double consensus. The PPI move matters more…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Seven Reasons Why The Hormuz Crisis Has Yet To Cause The Global Economy To Crash

The global economy has weathered the oil shock reasonably well so far. However, the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Past Peak Tariff Impact

This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Dispatches From the Future (January 2, 2027): The Return Of Nasdog

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day).

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics