Gabriel Gosselin
Research Associate
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US Diesel Export Ban: A Short-Term Fix With Global Fallout
Our Commodity strategists expect a wider US-to-global diesel discount and weaker diesel prices versus other US refined products as export restrictions become increasingly likely. Record retail diesel prices above $6.50 a gallon and mounting political pressure…
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China’s Investment Downshift: What's Next?
China's investment downshift is structural, and Beijing will have to respond to it by turning toward household demand. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jing Sima, Chief China Strategist. China's capital stock-to-GDP ratio now sits above most developed…
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The Fed-Hiking Trail Map: The Path Higher For Equities
Our US Equity strategists expect stocks to withstand the start of a new tightening cycle. Last week's hike came with a signal of more to follow, but the market has already done much of the adjusting. Valuations compressed ahead of the decision, and the…
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The AI Issuance Boom Hasn’t Eroded US Corporate Balance Sheets
Our US Bond strategists see no sign that this year's AI bond issuance boom has eroded US corporate balance sheets. Gross investment grade issuance has already surpassed 2020 levels, yet their top-down and bottom-up Corporate Health Monitors both point to…
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PMI Beats Reaffirm Resilient Growth
September's flash PMIs show the US economy remains resilient to persistently high energy prices and higher rates. The composite index rose to 58.4 from 56, its highest level since 2021. Manufacturing and services both came in well above consensus.…
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Putting Inflation Fears In Their Place
Our US Investment strategists see fears of a significant wage growth breakout as overdone. Entrenched misperceptions die hard, but the structural balance of power between workers and employers has shifted too far to permit a repeat of the 1970s. The…
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The US Immigration Crackdown: Another Inflation Shock In The Making?
Our Essentials and CoreMacro strategists find little evidence that tighter labor supply from the US immigration crackdown is boosting inflation today. The net exit of unauthorized immigrants has nonetheless lowered the bar for stronger labor demand to turn…
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Peak Crude Strain, For Now
Our Commodity strategists expect rising dark transits through the Strait of Hormuz to keep cushioning the blow to global crude supplies. Middle Eastern seaborne exports have continued to climb through September despite the latest escalation in hostilities, a…
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US Manufacturing: Resilient Growth, Renewed Price Pressures
The September Philadelphia Fed survey showed manufacturing momentum holding up, alongside renewed price pressures. The headline index eased less than expected, to 37.8 from 47.3. The report echoed the NY Empire survey released earlier this week: manufacturing…
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Is AI Doom Threatening The AI Boom?
Our Global Investment strategists believe the AI industry's recent call for slowing development reflects financial self-interest as much as fear of AI doom. Major AI companies recognize they are locked in an arms race for dominance that they cannot sustain…