Jeremie Peloso | BCA Research

CoreMacro

Europe’s Earnings Renaissance: Can It Last?

Europe’s earnings recovery is increasingly difficult to dismiss. Margins, ROE, ROIC, and capital efficiency have all improved, while banks have re-emerged as an earnings engine. Cyclical conditions remain supportive, and the structural picture continues to improve: higher investment, improving productivity, and EU reforms could give the recovery staying power.

Jeremie Peloso 07 Sep 2026

CoreMacro

Poland: Superstar Or Shooting Star?

Poland’s near-term growth story remains compelling: surging EU investment should cushion European weakness and support equity outperformance. But the clock is ticking. Demographics, skills shortages, and fiscal deterioration will increasingly constrain convergence. Favor Polish equities and the belly of the curve; expect further near-term zloty weakness against the euro.

Jeremie Peloso 27 Aug 2026

CoreMacro FICC

Sweden And Norway: A Reversal Of Fortunes

The war in Iran and the energy shock are driving a reversal of Nordic fortunes: Sweden’s recovery is faltering just as Norway receives a welcome energy windfall. Favor Norwegian over Swedish equities and buy NOK/SEK. In rates, fade aggressive Riksbank hike expectations and downgrade Norwegian government bonds to neutral.

Jeremie Peloso, Artem Sakhbiev, Menglin Ji 18 Aug 2026

CoreMacro FICC

Will Europe Avoid A Recession? Two Perspectives

Europe faces a difficult macro backdrop, but whether it slips into recession remains finely balanced. We present two perspectives before translating them into investment implications.

Jeremie Peloso, Mathieu Savary 24 Jul 2026

GeoMacro CoreMacro

France Is Sitting On A Powder Keg

We wish all our French clients Bonne Fête Nationale! The rest of the world knows the holiday by its other name, Bastille Day. It is fitting, therefore, that we publish today GeoMacro Beta report on the coming political earthquake in France.

Jeremie Peloso 14 Jul 2026

CoreMacro

Westminster Is On The Ropes, UK Risk Assets Aren't

The UK economy is becoming increasingly fragile, but the investment outlook is improving. Slower growth and a more dovish BoE will support gilts, while UK equities will likely benefit from a favorable sector mix and a weaker pound.

Ayaan Sohhel, Jeremie Peloso 06 Jul 2026

2026 World Cup: Round Of 32 Preview

The Round of 32 continues Monday with three intriguing matchups, headlined by Brazil's clash with Japan. The two sides arrive here through very different paths. Japan impressed in one of the tournament's toughest groups, finishing ahead of strong performances…

Jeremie Peloso 26 Jun 2026

FICC CoreMacro

Tight Credit Spreads, K-Shaped Corporates?

Corporate health remains supportive of tight credit spreads in both the US and Europe, but a growing divide is emerging beneath the surface. Investment-grade issuers continue to strengthen, while lower-rated borrowers face mounting pressures. Credit markets are pricing resilience, leaving investors vulnerable should corporate fundamentals begin to deteriorate.

Robert Timper, Jeremie Peloso 23 Jun 2026

2026 World Cup: Monday Games

Today’s games offer likely qualifiers a few opportunities to challenge the betting markets. In Group I, France and Norway can take a major step toward the Round of 32. Our model gives France overwhelming odds against Iraq, a view fully shared by betting…

Jeremie Peloso 19 Jun 2026

CoreMacro FICC

After The Insurance Hike, The Dovish Pivot

Today’s ECB rate hike is not the beginning of a hiking cycle. Growth concerns will soon move to the forefront of ECB policy decisions, preventing further tightening.

Robert Timper, Jeremie Peloso 11 Jun 2026