Menglin Ji
Research Associate
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The Small-Parcel Party Is Over
July marked the end of de minimis exemptions in Europe, pointing to the inflationary consequences of the retreat from globalization. Starting July 1st, the European Union imposed a flat €3 customs duty on all parcels valued under €150, ending a duty-free…
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2026 World Cup: And Now For The Semi-Finals…
France and Spain meet in Dallas today, in what many have already dubbed it the final before the final, and it is easy to see why. France has been the tournament's most prolific team, scoring more goals than any other team in the competition. Six matches…
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Good News For Europe: Algeria Hits The Gas
Algeria may offer the European Union some relief from its natural gas supply squeeze. Algeria has become the EU’s third-largest natural gas supplier, delivering around 40 billion cubic meters in 2025, accounting for roughly 14% of total EU imports. The timing…
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2026 World Cup: Tuesday Games
Tuesday concludes the Round of 16, with two matches in Atlanta and Vancouver determining the last two quarter-finalists. Argentina's path to this stage was harder than expected, needing extra-time to get a 3-2 win over Cape Verde, but Messi remains in…
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2026 World Cup: Tuesday’s Games
Our World Cup model correctly predicted 26 of the 32 teams advancing out of the group stage. With the knockout rounds now underway, we have published an updated model to reflect the new format. Across today's three fixtures, our model is broadly in agreement…
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2026 World Cup: Spotlight On CR7
Tuesday's four matches span Groups K and L, completing the second round of fixtures for both groups and sharpening qualification scenarios considerably. Portugal looks the part on paper, and our model agrees; the Seleção Portuguesa has an 86% chance of…
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2026 World Cup: Winner’s Curse?
The spotlight falls on Groups I and J this Tuesday, with four games spread across the US. The day should matter early for group control: France and Austria open as favorites in our model, while Norway looks well placed to start strongly against Iraq. In…
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Coal Is Back, But Not Like 2022
The Strait of Hormuz disruption forced a substitution away from LNG and toward coal across Asia. India has delayed the maintenance shutdown of 10,000 MW of coal-fired capacity to July and will lean more on its coal capacity for peak summer demand; South Korea…
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Uranium: The Bull Case Just Got Enriched
Uranium’s bull market remains intact, supported by structural supply deficits, rising nuclear demand, and tightening fuel-cycle constraints. The Iran war reinforces energy security concerns while disrupting key inputs like sulfur, exacerbating supply risks. With contracting strengthening and policy support accelerating, uranium is re-emerging as a strategic commodity with durable upside.
Jeremie Peloso, Menglin Ji, Eugenia Pan