Bear/Bull Market

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Amid the storm of global financial uncertainty, Argentina stands out as a free-market safe haven. The lifting of currency controls was the last step taken by this country to embrace market mechanisms. We recommend that investors buy Argentine equities, sovereign credit, and domestic bonds, and overweight Argentina within EM equity and fixed-income portfolios.

Barring a dramatic further de-escalation of the trade war, the US and much of the rest of the world will enter a recession over the next few months. Investors should remain defensively positioned for now.