IPOs

Based on 40 years of history and some 12,000 IPOs, the evidence suggests that the coming IPO wave may dampen forward market returns, mute further multiple expansion, and possibly interrupt sector trends. That said, even monster-sized IPOs are unlikely to trigger a sustained bear market: only about 20% of mega-IPOs coincide with market peaks. The bigger risk is AI leadership rotation as new listings dilute scarcity premia in existing winners.