Labor Market
UK labor data weakened in August and September, reinforcing downside inflation risks and supporting overweight Gilts with 2s10s steepeners. Payrolls fell by 10k in September, while job vacancies continued to slide to cyclical lows as unemployment reached…
The October Fed Beige Book points to slowing growth as uncertainty continues to weigh on activity. Fed contacts reported consumer spending recently decreased, though auto sales were supported by EV purchases ahead of the expiration of tax credits. Lower- and…
The October Empire Manufacturing survey beat estimates, but weak investment and hiring intentions temper its positive signal. The index rose to 10.7 from -8.7, indicating modest activity growth. New orders ticked up, and shipments increased after plunging…
The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed estimates, falling to 98.8 from 100.8. The decrease was driven by expectations, as fewer small businesses expect the economy to improve or real sales to rise. Firms also reported inventories as too high,…
Treasury yields are generally following the pattern of past interest rate cycles, but with a larger term premium keeping the curve steeper than usual.
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold and other commodities, and much more.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the policy rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% and signaled further easing ahead, supporting an overweight stance in New Zealand government bonds and underweight in the NZD.The larger-than-expected move followed the 0.9%…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2025.
With the government shutdown delaying jobs data, alternative indicators point to a marginally weaker US labor market in September. The absence of the monthly employment report and weekly initial claims leaves us reliant on other sources. The September…
The September ADP report contracted by 32k jobs, missing expectations and extending the trend of weakening employment. August was revised lower to a 3k contraction, marking two consecutive months of decline after also contracting in June. The report was noisy…