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Iran

China Feels The Strait Squeeze

Oil shocks hit economies with a lag. China will feel the delayed pain of surging oil prices, pushing Beijing toward infrastructure spending as its main tool to prop up growth.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
Iran: Ceasefire Extension Would Only Delay The Crunch
A 60-day ceasefire extension would buy the global economy some time, but it would not resolve the underlying supply problem. Oil prices and bond yields fell while equities rallied Tuesday morning after Trump announced…
Daily Insights by Gabriel Gosselin
US-Iran: What To Make Of The Accelerated Negotiations

I spent the last week in London, speaking to a wide array of BCA Research clients. Throughout the early part of the week, well connected friends and sources in the Middle East warned me that a renewed US attack on Iran was imminent (by Friday, May 22, after the market close, bien sûr). Several clients with hefty AUM’s – and thus an impressive geopolitical consulting budget – in London confirmed that the US attack was all but assured. 

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
On The Long-Term Consequences Of Hormuz
Our clients are split on the Hormuz shock’s long-term consequences. In last week’s poll, we asked what the single biggest long-term consequence would be. BCA clients leaned toward a renewables boom, chosen by 47%, while 24% pointed to inflation entrenchment.…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
Iran’s Tipping Point?
Our Commodity strategists expect oil prices to move higher as de-escalation hopes fade and Strait of Hormuz supply risks reassert themselves. Recent volatility reflect headline-driven uncertainty, with markets swinging between prospects of an imminent Strait…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Iran’s Tipping Point?

Hopes for an imminent Middle East de-escalation have capped oil prices in recent weeks, but that restraint may soon fade.

Commodity & Energy Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Roukaya Ibrahim
No Deal, No Shipping?
The Middle East returned to the headlines over the weekend, and any normalization of Hormuz shipping now looks delayed. President Trump called Iran’s response to the US peace proposal “totally unacceptable.” Our Geopolitical strategists still see Iran as…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Urea In Trouble?
The Hormuz crisis is likely to disrupt urea markets; trade routes and production capacity can only adjust slowly and at meaningful cost. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jose Yanes, analyst in our GeoMacro team.  In the Hormuz crisis, urea sits…
Daily Insights by Jose Yanes, Felix Vezina-Poirier
On Oil Prices
Our clients are split on whether Brent will be below $100 in 6 months. In last week's poll, we asked where Brent crude will trade in 6 months. 43% of BCA clients expect sub-$100/bbl prices, while 32% see Brent in the $120–$150 range, 14% in $100–$120,…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
Why Did The UAE Get Singled Out?

The surprisingly solid ceasefire between Iran, the US, Israel, and GCC countries broke on May 4 with a ballistic missile and drone attack against the UAE. According to reports, UAE defense forces intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four drones, launched by Iran. 

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic

Iran Conflict Daily Dashboard

Real-time charts on the Iran Conflict

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