Multipolarity

The dollar is not being replaced by a single rival, it is being diluted by a rising cast of “other” reserve currencies. This report identifies the hidden winners of reserve diversification and why they may matter more than investors think.

We have long argued, on a case-by-case basis, that countries willing to play the superpowers against each other win in a multipolar world. The logic is intuitive, and in this report, we measure it systematically.

The debate over “what replaces the dollar” is misguided. The real shift is toward a multi-anchor system where reserve functions fragment. That changes everything from term premia to cross-asset correlations. The implication: portfolios built for the old regime are already behind the curve.

World War III will not happen. But if you disagree, here is our portfolio to hedge it: commodities, neutrals, and crypto.

In our Beta report, we introduce a new framework for thinking about long-term investing in a multipolar world: The Garrison State. Investors need to shed their outdated view that geopolitical risks are... a risk. History teaches us that pressure makes diamonds. And geopolitical pressure makes Garrison States, which tend to outperform precisely because by definition, the bevy of risks that surrounds them is existential.